Scenarios for Impacts of Foothill Highway 65 and High Speed Rail on Urban Growth in the San Joaquin Valley

A Project for the Great Valley Center

Bob Johnston
rajohnston@ucdavis.edu

Shengyi Gao
sgao@ucdavis.edu

The purpose of this project is to assess the impacts of the proposed Foothill Highway 65 and also of high speed rail on urban growth in the San Joaquin Valley.

The proposed Foothill Highway 65 starts in Sutter County, and goes through Yuba County, Placer County, Sacramento County, San Joaquin County, Calaveras County, Stanislaus County, Merced County, Madera County, Fresno County and ends in Tulare County. This highway will improve mobility in the central valley, and then influence the pattern of urban growth.

The proposed high speed rail line goes through all counties in the San Joaquin Valley. The Bay Area connector starts at Santa Clara and ends at Merced, where it joins the main north-south line. The connector will make the commute from the central and northern San Joaquin Valley to the south Bay Area much easier. Therefore, high speed rail will have significant impacts on the urban growth in the San Joaquin Valley. In addition, Bakersfield will be better connected to southern California and we would expect it to grow more rapidly. Our projections do not increase the growth rates for Kern Co. or Merced Co. and so are conservative. Our UPlan model, however, does clearly show a reasonable expected pattern of growth shifting to the east if Highway 65 is built and shows growth shifting to the west, if the high speed rail line is built. We also portray a trend scenario, where neither new facility is built, for comparison.

This project is sponsored by the Great Valley Center. For more information, please visit: http://www.greatvalley.org/